New Frontiers in Political Risk Analysis: Forecasting and Intelligence Between Theory and Practice

Abstract

In an era of rapid geopolitical transformation, technological advancements, and increasingly complex global challenges, political risk analysis (PRA) has emerged as an indispensable tool for understanding, forecasting, and mitigating uncertainties in both public and private sectors. In the wake of the publication of "The Routledge Handbook of Political Risk" (2025), this panel, “New Frontiers in Political Risk Analysis: Forecasting and Intelligence Between Theory and Practice,” seeks to explore the evolving methodologies, applications, and theoretical underpinnings of PRA, while bridging the gap between academic scholarship and practical implementation. The panel will bring together a diverse array of contributions that underscore the multifaceted nature of PRA in contemporary contexts. From the role of PRA in sector-specific applications to the integration of advanced technologies and the ethical dimensions of expert-driven forecasting, this session will provide a platform for cutting-edge dialogue on both theoretical innovations and pragmatic strategies. One paper will focus on the role of PRA in the insurance sector, shedding light on how geopolitical and sociopolitical factors are assessed to manage and mitigate financial risk. This analysis delves into how insurers incorporate political risk into underwriting decisions, addressing the increasing demand for robust, data-driven forecasting tools and the challenges of aligning predictive models with real-world scenarios. This contribution underscores the critical role of PRA in fostering resilience and adaptability in industries heavily reliant on risk assessment. Another paper will examine Gaza as a case study for early warning systems in fragile contexts. This research explores how PRA methodologies can be employed to anticipate and respond to potential crises in politically volatile regions. By analyzing the intersection of socio-political, economic, and environmental indicators, this paper provides insights into the efficacy and limitations of early warning frameworks in conflict-prone areas, offering valuable lessons for policymakers and practitioners alike. A third contribution will address the intersection of PRA and artificial intelligence (AI), exploring AI-driven technologies that are revolutionizing global politics and the field of political risk analysis. This analysis critically evaluates if and how AI and its related risks are integrated into PRA frameworks. By situating AI within the broader trajectory of PRA’s evolution, this paper aims to provoke discussion on the future possibilities and pitfalls of AI developments in risk analysis. The panel will also feature a reflection on the evolving role of experts in the context of political forecasting. Inspired by a forthcoming chapter on the subject, this presentation will interrogate the shifting dynamics of expertise in an age characterized by growing reliance on data and computational models. It will explore tensions between qualitative and quantitative approaches, the value of human judgment in an increasingly algorithm-driven field, and the implications for the credibility and accountability of PRA as a discipline. Collectively, the panel aims to advance an interdisciplinary dialogue on the methodological, theoretical, and practical dimensions of political risk analysis. By addressing questions such as how PRA can better integrate advances in technology, what lessons can be drawn from its application in specific sectors and regions, and how the role of experts is being redefined, the panel seeks to illuminate pathways for enhancing the relevance and impact of PRA. This panel is particularly timely, given the growing need for robust tools to navigate the uncertainties of an interconnected yet fragmented world. It invites scholars and practitioners from a range of disciplines, including political science, international relations, economics, and technology studies, to engage in a critical examination of the challenges and opportunities at the forefront of PRA. Through these discussions, the panel aims to contribute to the development of more effective, inclusive, and ethical approaches to forecasting and intelligence in the 21st century.

Title	Details
Political Risk Analysis in the Private Insurance Industry	View Paper Details
The Gaza Crisis and the Limitations of Predictive Systems in Protracted Conflicts	View Paper Details
Political Risk and AI: Developing a Scenario Analysis to Understand AI Implications for Political Risk Analysis	View Paper Details
The Role of Experts in Contemporary Political Risk Analysis: Navigating the Human-Algorithm Nexus?	View Paper Details