Fearing a Loss of Control and Radical Vote Choice: Examining the Connection Between a Voter’s Diffuse Attitudinal Disposition and the Support for Radical Populism.

What is the relationship between an individual’s sense of loss of control and radicalization as evidenced by the support for radical populists? A growing literature suggests that explanations of vote choice based on ideological affinity and issue preferences may be overestimating the extent to which voters have well-formed ideas about the issue environment and their ideological preferences. Furthermore, the ideational approach to populism suggests that populists may be effective by suppling citizens’ diffuse notions with concreate ideas about the state of politics and society. Specifically, populist promises to restore an idealized status quo ante in which people feel once again secure in their position and protected should resonate especially with voters fearing to have lost or be losing control over their lives. Drawing on cross-national survey data (esp. EVS and WVS) and yielding results for most West European political systems, the paper first investigates the relationship between loss of and populist vote choice across time. In a second step, the proposed research analyzes the different dimensions of the independent variable. These can be individualistic (perceived personal incapacity) and collective (perceived own-group incapacity) as well as economic, social, and political, all of which relate to a citizen’s perception of being unable to influence a crucial aspect of one’s personal, socio-political, or socio-economic situation. In doing so, the paper wants to make a contribution to a growing literature seeking to provide a more nuanced understanding of how people drawn to radical parties tend to conceive of democracy.