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Varieties of Origins and Survival in Asian Autocracies: A Multi-Method Analysis

Asia
 
Comparative Politics
 
Political Regime
 
Panel Number
P510
Panel Chair
Jaemin Shim
German Institute of Global And Area Studies
Panel Co-Chair
Yuko Kasuya
Keio University
Panel Discussant
Thomas Richter
German Institute of Global And Area Studies

Time
25/08/2018 16:00 - 17:40
Location
Building: VMP 5 Floor: 2 Room: 2079
Abstract
The primary purpose of this panel is to examine various paths Asian autocracies had taken before and after the war with four distinctive methods. Considering its diversity, Asia as a whole has huge analytical potential in deepening our understanding of autocracies. For instance, it is a region where a variety of regime types (Monarchy, One-party, Military, Multi-party authoritarian, democracy) exist today and where we can examine legacies of diverse colonizers, including the UK, France, the Netherlands, the United States, Portugal, Spain, and Japan. Against this background, this panel aims to further our insights into causes, mechanisms, and effects of different autocratic types in Asia based on multiple methods. With a comparative historical analysis, the first paper traces potential motivations/causes behind the selection of particular regime type, e.g. one-party dominance, military dictatorship, or monarchy, in 13 Asian countries. Specifically, it focuses on three key critical junctures when the window of opportunity was presented to primary political actors. Considering the colonial legacies of most of Asian autocracies, the second paper focuses on the first constitution of each autocracy and demonstrates the influence of colonizers by applying quantitative text analysis. Using geographical proximity, time period, and colonial history as predictors, the paper explains the degree of text similarity between constitutions in Asian countries. Going beyond a paper including various regime types in one paper, the three other papers aim to have a deeper understanding of two prominent autocratic types—military dictatorship and communist regime—with original datasets. On the one hand, by employing cross-sectional quantitative regression, the third paper analyzes institutionalization and legitimization strategies of long-surviving military dictators in Asia. On the other hand, a Qualitative Comparative Analysis is applied in the fourth paper to tease out necessary and sufficient conditions of successful communist movements. In addition to the quantitative approach deployed in the first half of analysis, both papers conduct theory-driven case studies in the second half to illuminate causes and processes of success in military dictatorships and communist revolutions in Asia. Finally, arguing against the latest works which treat elections, protests, and fee media as channels to reveal public's dissatisfaction in autocratic regimes, the fifth paper applies text analysis to the Chinese internal media system and demonstrates that these channels have been no more than carefully managed tools autocrats utilized to promote regime resilience.

Paper List


Title Details
Conditions of Successful Communist Movements in Asia: A Qualitative Comparative Analysis View Paper Details
Constitutional Origins of Asian Nations View Paper Details
Regime Divergence at the Time of Decolonization in Asia: A Comparative Historical Analysis View Paper Details
The Historical Origins of Long-Surviving Military Dictatorship in Asia: A Quantitative Approach to Regime Institutionalization and Legitimization View Paper Details
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