Decarbonization and the Weaponization of Energy

Abstract

Dependence on fossil fuel imports is again being used as a means of political pressure, a pattern known as the weaponization of energy since the oil crises of the 1970s. Yet decarbonization does not simply reduce such vulnerabilities, it reshapes them: new, often asymmetric interdependencies are emerging along cross-border electricity and hydrogen networks, critical raw material and green value chains, and digital control and certification systems. As old and new systems coexist and the pace and direction of change remain uncertain, Europe faces a moving target. This raises the question of how geoeconomic risks and leverage points associated with a potential weaponization of energy change amid decarbonization and the related process of digitalization. Answering it is hampered by a divide in the literature. Research on weaponized interdependence explains how states exploit network positions and chokepoints, while research on power in global value chains and production networks examines how control over production, technology, and standards shapes dependencies. Both rarely engage with each other or with the specific features of low-carbon energy systems. This article brings these discussions together in a narrative review and, drawing also on work on geo-economic control and infrastructural power, develops a novel conceptual framework. We illustrate the framework with examples and derive a research agenda that prioritizes open questions. We conclude with implications for how policymakers can increase resilience without slowing down decarbonization.