Sailing the Ship through the Storm: Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for the Breakdown and Survival of Democracies between the World Wars

Based on process tracing in twelve cases studies andd a (global) configurational analysis of all democracies in the interwar period the paper identifies which conditions are necessary and sufficient for the breakdown and survival of democracies in the interwar period. The period is marked by devastation and turmoil. While (an almost worldwide) economic decline is a key reason to explain why so many democracies broke down in the interwar period it does not explain why some democracies survived and others failed. It turns out that actually things are rather simple. Not one consolidated democracy broke down in the interwar period that was established before World War I. However, the new democracies (mostly created in the short period between 1919-1922) were extremely vulnerable. Almost all poor democracies with many illiterates like Greece, Lithuania, Portugal or Poland broke down, while rich democracies usually survived. However, the interwar period also revealed for the first time that in a rather rich, industrialized and socially modern country as in Germany democracy does not automotically survive. It is shown that the main reason for the breakdown of democracy in Germany (as well as in Austria and Italy) is a (post-)imperial syndrom that undermines democracy in countries that once were and/or strive to be “great powers”. The last past of the paper takes a brief look at the implications of the findings for the present and future. It is argued that a (post-)imperial syndrom might also explain why democracy broke down in Russia and why after a future breakdown of communism it might be as hard to create a working democracy in China as in Weimar Germany and post-Soviet Russia.