Matching Populisms: (Why) Do Populist Voters Vote for Populist Parties?

While studies of supply-side populism are extensive, their connections with demand-side dynamics, and particularly the populist characteristics or tendencies of the electorate, require more scholarly attention. With that in mind, we ask two core questions: (i) Do populist voters vote for populist parties, and (ii) to what extent do populist (and other) attitudes contribute to this choice? While existing studies have pointed out that populist parties attract a particular dissatisfied segment of the electorate, we seek to examine in more detail which attitudes are particularly conducive to a populist party vote, and whether there are other parties families otherwise likely to attract ‘populist voters’. Differently put, to what extent are populist attitudes a trigger for a populist vote, or can we even consider them as instigating a populist vote? In addition, we seek to examine the extent to which substantive policy preferences matter: are voters primarily driven by the populist appeal of parties, or rather by their substantive (left-wing or right-wing) policy programmes? For the analysis of the supply-side, we rely on the classification and rationale provided by van Kessel (2015). For the analysis of the demand-side, we use survey data provided by the LIVEWHAT project. This is the sole dataset that allows for the cross-national analysis of populist attitudes. Simultaneously, it allows us to relate the populist and policy-related attitudes of voters in nine European countries to these voters’ party choice. Given today’s prevalence of populism, both within parties and the electorates, we expect populist attitudes to be a natural predictor of vote choice; yet, not necessarily of the vote choice for populist parties.