Diverting Abroad or Diverting at Home: Testing the International Event Assumption

This study put to test the widely accepted assumption about the necessity of internationality of rally ‘round the flag events. Two hypotheses were tested: 1. Domestic discontent is associated with an increased likelihood of initiated use of armed force by the government against civilians instead of interstate militarized dispute. 2. Domestic discontent is associated with an increased likelihood of initiated militarized interstate disputes instead of one-sided use of armed force by the government against its own civilians. Domestic unrest increase the likelihood of foreign diversionary policy as well as domestic diversionary policy. Hence the widely accepted assumption about the necessity of international event for diversionary policy is incorrect.