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Informal Coalitions in Transitional Regimes

Comparative Politics
Conflict
Contentious Politics
Democratisation
Political Methodology
Social Movements
Political Sociology
Ivo Veiga
NOVA University Lisbon
Ivo Veiga
NOVA University Lisbon

Abstract

This paper aims to analyse coalition processes and their influence on variations of transitional regimes. It intends to show that the critical mobilization of informal and broad coalitions of actors – that is, coalitions representing diverse political and social groups –, challenges authoritarian incumbents and controls narrower association of actors related to non-democratic agendas. In addition, it intends to bring to the fore the causal mechanisms that drive coalition formation in non-consolidated political systems. The paper will draw on evidence from the Portuguese (1974-76) and Spanish (1976-1978) democratization processes. The Spanish pacted transition, which has served as a prototype for democratization studies, is here seen as establishing a stark contrast with Portugal, where a socialist revolutionary process ended in a democratic outcome. The paper will underline the importance of time and duration at a micro-level as well as the centrality of interactions between multiple actors in changing societies. It will conceptualize and explore different coalition types. Event analysis and social network analysis will be employed to examine processes and mechanisms of coalition formation in these transitional regimes.