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The Long-term Scars of Civil Wars. How Autoritharian Repression Shaped Electoral Politics in Spain

Conflict
Electoral Behaviour
Political Ideology
Southern Europe
Voting Behaviour
Toni Rodon
Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Toni Rodon
Universitat Pompeu Fabra

Abstract

How does civil repression in autocratic regimes influence voting behavior? While researchers have shown that the brutality of repression post-civil wars significantly affect civil society, social capital or other political attitudes, less is known about its effect on voting for the left or the right. On one hand, it may be plausible that repression brings about a spiral of silence that favors the right. On the other, repression may backfire and increase citizens probability to vote for the opposition when democracy is established. Using fine-grained geocoded data on regime repression in Catalonia after the Spanish Civil War (1931-1939), this article explores the long-term consequences of civil repression on election outcomes.