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The Development of Natural Gas Markets: A Comparative Analysis of Perspectives and Opportunities for Russia and the EU

Inna Chuvychkina
Universität Bremen
Inna Chuvychkina
Universität Bremen

Abstract

This paper examines the structural changes of natural gas markets. One of the most sustainable tendencies in the past thirty years is an increasing role of global gas demand. IEA forecasts a golden age for natural gas. In contrast to oil supplies, natural gas is transported to a market mainly through pipelines that means a mutual dependence between supplier and consumer and also the high risks of possible delivery failure as a result of the conflict with transit states. Thus, the pipeline transportation systems determine regional nature of gas markets. The changing market dynamics are characterized by development of liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure and growth in spot trade of LNG. This technology makes it possible to ship gas in special vessel around the world and to react flexibly to the various political and market conditions. There is also a tendency that the long-term contracts will be replaced by spot trading. Unconventional gas production has an immediate impact on expansion of global LNG supply capacity. Shale gas and renewable energy could transform the energy mix. LNG is not only an important element of energy supply security, but also a key factor in becoming a global gas market. The European regional gas market is undergoing structural changes as well. Liberalization process focuses on instituting a system of competition, creating and governing an integrated market and should eliminate monopoly power of some suppliers. These rapid changes are having a serious effect on Russia as the world’s biggest producer and Europe’s single largest supplier of natural gas. Russia will be forced to find responses to the challenges arising from internationalization of gas trade and to adapt its export strategies. The aim of this paper is to determine the changing modes of interaction between Russia and the EU.