Rallies around the Flag-Draped Coffins: The Electoral Effects of Security Force Casualties in Terror Attacks

Political violence increasingly targets security forces. I examine a natural experiment in Turkey to understand the effect of casualties in these attacks on vote choice. Between two general elections in 2015, Turkey experienced a series of attacks that killed 158 members of the security forces. Based on an exogenous variation of their hometowns across the country, I estimate that the government vote share increases in the burial places of terror victims. However, in the towns with recurring casualties, the support for government decreases by a slightly higher percentage. Opposition parties do not experience a significant change in their vote share. Distinguishing between the initial and repeated casualties in an experimental design, these results provide a strong evidence for the rally theory.