Most of the electoral systems used to elect members of sixteen German Landtags are not fundamentally different from the electoral system used in the Bundestag election. Therefore, both the second-order character of the Landtag elections in the German political system and the regional specificity of the political scene of each federal state might be considered as the main source of the differences in electoral behaviour in the Landtag and Bundestag elections.
In this context, the electoral systems used to elect members of the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg and the Landtag of Bavaria deserve special attention. The construction of both electoral systems differs from the rules applied in the Bundestag elections to an extent that does not remain indifferent to electoral behaviour, and the final distribution of seats in the legislature. The uniqueness of the electoral system to the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg is determined mainly by the lack of party list in PR tier of the system, the application of a single-vote system, which allows voters to express their support for the candidate in a constituency, and the specific system of distribution of compensatory seats. When it comes to the Bavarian elections, the semi-open party list, which enables the voter to express her personal preferences in the PR tier of the system, and the method of determining the electoral outcome, in which the sum of votes obtained in both tiers of the system determines the final number of seats received by each party, should be named as distinctive elements of the electoral system.
The above-mentioned differences between the two electoral systems and the Bundestag electoral system, leave us with the following questions:
1. Do, and if so to what extent, the specific construction of electoral systems adopted for the Landtag elections in Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria, are responsible for differences in electoral behaviour in the Landtag and Bundestag elections held in both federal state?
2. What are the consequences of the constructions of electoral systems for the result of voting and distribution of seats? In this context, we need to consider what would be the course and outcome of the electoral competition to the Landtags of Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria, if they were carried out on the basis of rules characteristic of the Bundestag electoral system. This analysis will also allow identifying parties that can be named as “beneficiaries” of specific construction adopted both in the Baden-Württemberg and Bavarian electoral systems, and those that can be considered their “victims”.
3. What would be the seats distribution in the Bundestag if the elections to the lower house of the German parliament were held using electoral rules applied in the elections to the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg and the Landtag of Bavaria?
The answer to the above questions will be provided based on the analysis of aggregated data regarding the results of voting in the Bundestag and Landtag elections held in the federal states of Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg.
