The EU and Regime Change in Ukraine: a Case Study in Ambiguity

The paper will consist of the following: a comparative section discussing the EU''s policy approach on democratic conditionality (including the defects of this approach and compromises made in its application) for countries seeking to join and how far this differs from the EU''s approach towards non-democracies or hybrid regimes; EU policy towards Ukraine in the three successive periods listed above; the question of political standards as a central element in this policy and how far Kyiv has responded or not; and, a conclusion seeking to draw together the results of this two-part analysis and discussing possible scenarios for the future. It will on the one side identify ambiguities in the EU approach towards Ukraine (influenced among other things by differences among the EU institutions and also member states) and on the other side look at factors which have constrained Kyiv''s response to demands from Brussels. Altogether, lessons will be drawn about the effectiveness or not of the Eastern Partnership.