Learning to anticipate in water governance

Freshwater bodies are embedded in social-ecological systems, which can both support or hinder the sustainability transformation of a landscape. Such a transformation may entail the rethinking of relations between ecological and social elements of a freshwater system. An increasing amount of studies supports the claim that resource governance provides sustainable outcomes; however, practical examples of and guidance for a transformation towards sustainability governance are lacking. There is therefore a gap between theoretical work suggesting governance strategies for sustainability transformations and real-world examples of such practices. By illustrating synergies between anticipatory governance and triple-loop learning within decision-making and policy contexts, we aspire to fill this gap. Anticipatory governance requires platforms for deliberation, reframing and negotiation about prevailing policies and practices in light of uncertain and possibly undesirable future developments (represented in double loop learning). Transformative change in prevailing policies and practices (triple loop learning) needs to be facilitated by enabling institutional settings. We investigate the case of resource governance at Lake Ringsjön in Southern Sweden by rapid evidence assessment and causal loop diagrams, to explore to which extent anticipatory governance is present. We find that the governance system of lake Ringsjön has the potential to qualify as anticipatory, and it is possible to identify distinctive learning-loops. We note that social capital and informal networks are essential for supporting higher levels of learning. The present study informs resilience thinking and social-ecological transformation theory.