How Uncertainty in Times of Crisis Affect the Main Divides in a Society

The literature on group identity theory in sociology has emphasized the importance of group self-identification to understand interpersonal behavior. Scholars studying affective polarization in political science have evidenced the presence of animosity between parties. We do not know however how the main divides in a society evolve in times of crisis. As seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, in times of crisis, uncertainty about the future (and even the near future) can be high. Given that a few studies show that uncertainty affect group identification and inter-group behavior, the present study investigates how uncertainty about the future affects interpersonal behavior and interpersonal preferences. We use two survey experiments to test how the main divides are affected by uncertainty, and how these effects vary among subgroups.