Surrogate Warfare in Great Power Competition

This paper proposes a conceptualization of surrogates that includes all human actors that patrons, who can be both state or non-state actors, delegate some or all of the burden of warfare to. Surrogates could thus be other states, non-state actors, or private military companies. It will then explore how surrogates can be used for strategic advantage in a context of great power competition where there is an incentive to stay underneath the threshold of conventional war. The idea of victory in great power competition, and what strategies may lead to success will be analysed, as well as different strategies and approaches great powers use to compete with one another, such as gray zone warfare or hybrid warfare. The concept will be applied to the case of the great power competition between the US and Russia, looking specifically at their use of surrogates in the conflicts Ukraine and Syria. Their grand strategy as well as their goals and strategies in great power competition with one another will be studied, as well their use of surrogates to achieve said goals. This includes investigating the patron-surrogate relationship, surrogate selection, alignment of interests between patron and surrogate, the risks as well as methods of control, type and level of support and duration of the relationship in order to explore what approach is best suited to lead to strategic success in great power competition.