The Impact of EU Enforcement Actions on Domestic Media Debates on Judicial Independence in Hungary and Poland: A Topic Modeling Analysis

How do enforcement actions by international organizations against democratic backsliding affect public debates in backsliding member states? Previous research has suggested that forceful actions by IOs may change the terms of domestic debates in ways that favour actors contesting backsliding or human rights violations. However, media coverage of contentious backsliding reforms is also heavily influenced by the public communication strategies of the incumbent regime, particularly in contexts where backsliding includes political capture of significant media companies. This article analyses the impact of EU enforcement actions on domestic media debates over judicial independence in Poland (2015-2023) and Hungary (2010-2023). Our research design proceeds in two steps. First, we select a broad media corpus covering the debates and use topic modelling to uncover dominant themes and frames. Second, we match changes in themes over time to specific enforcement actions by the EU. Our findings will have important implications for our understanding of the extent to which IOs may affect domestic politics over controversial backsliding reforms.