Western Fatigue? The influence of the Russian invasion on populist parties in Europe

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine has prompted a critical reassessment of European political party stances toward the Putin regime. Initial investigations into the assertiveness levels of far-right and far-left populist parties immediately after the full-scale invasion revealed a convergence of assertiveness towards Russia among far-right populist parties in general. Simultaneously, this period exposed a Russia-friendly stance from Rassemblement National and Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), persisting even after the invasion. Additionally, traditionally Russia-friendly far-left parties exhibited a notable surge in assertiveness, bringing them into closer alignment with the European Parliament (EP) mainstream. This paper aims to reevaluate these findings in the context of a potential ‘Western fatigue’, analyzing Roll Call Votes (RCVs) over a longer timeframe encompassing the entire legislative period of the Ninth European Parliament (2019-2024). Key questions to be addressed include: Is there evidence of a far-left backlash towards more Russia-friendly positions, or has the shift become entrenched? Can the reported fracture within the far-right group over the Putin regime be confirmed? The article seeks to contribute to a nuanced understanding of evolving EU dynamics more than two years after the Russian invasion, shedding light on broader trends of democratic decline in the EU.