The Influence of Rebel Diplomacy on Responses of Target States to External State Support of Rebel Groups

Rebel diplomacy literature has been developing lately to understand the diplomatic engagements of rebel groups and how this affects the conflict processes. This study looks at the study of rebel diplomacy from a perspective of foreign policy engagements of rebel groups and target states to influence the state supporters of rebel groups. By doing so, this study aims to analyze the impact of rebel diplomacy on target states’ behavior when they are confronted by supporter states that harbor rebel groups. Target state behavior might change depending on the threat perception that is shaped by rebel diplomacy. I posit that when rebels engage in diplomacy inside the supporter states either in intentional or de facto terms (with the help of the supporters), target states will behave coercively towards the supporter states. I test this argument using an original dataset that contains the responses of target states between the years 1990 and 2010. The study has implications for investigations into conflict management, rebel diplomacy, and external support of rebel groups.