Legitimacy in Crisis: A Comparative Analysis of German States during the COVID-19 Crisis

In an era of recurrent (political) crises and their expected escalation due to climate change, the different responses of governments, as exemplified by the different responses to the recent COVID-19 pandemic, significantly shape perceived legitimacy, which is crucial for democratic stability. My paper addresses the question of what factors influence perceived government legitimacy in (and after) times of crisis. It follows numerous attempts by political scientists to make legitimacy measurable and to link this to the importance of legitimacy in times of crisis. Using the difference-in-difference method and OLS regressions, data from the German Longitudinal Election Studies in the 16 German federal states and regional data are analysed. It covers the pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis periods, focusing on the COVID-19 crisis in the period 2020-2022. The dependent variable is (perceived) legitimacy, which is measured by proxy variables such as political trust, trust in government and satisfaction with democracy. Independent variables include the number of measures taken by the government and the success of these measures, tested, for example, by excess mortality. In a second step, it will also be analysed what difference it makes whether the government has communicated these measures or whether the output of these measures is more decisive. Preliminary results already show significant differences between western and eastern German states. This paper aims to shed light on these differences and to enrich our understanding of the factors influencing perceived legitimacy during crises. By exploring the complex dynamics, the research contributes valuable insights to the discourse on the role of legitimacy in sustaining democratic governance in times of crisis.