Urban Flood Risk Perception and Trust: Insights from a Survey in Wuhan, China

The extreme precipitation is posing challenges to urban safety and sustainability. Preparing people well is imperative for improving urban resilience against flood risks. This study focuses on residents' flood risk perceptions, exploring influencing factors, with a particular emphasis on mechanisms validating trust in public flood protection capacity, flood risk perception, and flood risk communication. Utilizing a literature-based analysis, we propose a comprehensive framework and present four hypotheses on interrelations among influencing factors of flood risk perception. Wuhan is selected as a case city facing complex risks of urban flood. Analyzing residents in high- and low-risk areas of Wuhan, China, through cluster sampling, flood risk maps, and questionnaires, we gathered 568 valid responses. Employing Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling, we establish a structured framework to examine reciprocal relationships between flood risk perception and its influencers(including perceived flood risks, trust in the public's flood protection capacity, flood risk communication, flood preparedness intention, etc.). Mediation analysis confirms complex mechanisms linking trust, risk perception, and risk communication. Analysis of variance compares high and low-risk area residents' flood risk perceptions, and correlation analysis compares objective and perceived flood risks of the urban residents. The study's theoretical significance lies in further elucidating a testified structural framework of inflicting factors of flood risk perception. In practical terms, it clarifies trust, risk perception, and risk communication mechanisms, facilitating policy improvements, enhancing risk communication, and contributing to a flood-safe city with social resilience. Ultimately, this research improves understanding of residents' flood risk perception mechanisms within China's governance model and provides localized insights for global flood risk mitigation.