Unraveling the Aftermath: Coup Attempts and their Effects on Tactical Military Effectiveness

In this paper, I explore the impact of coup attempts on the tactical military effectiveness of countries engaged in counterinsurgency operations. Specifically, I focus on the extent to which these events influence a nation's capacity to inflict damage on adversaries while safeguarding their own forces during ground operations, and how this capacity evolves differently depending on the outcomes of coup attempts. I posit that the decline in tactical military effectiveness is more pronounced in the aftermath of failed coup attempts rather than successful coups. This is because failed coup attempts tend to erode the links between ruling leaders and the security apparatus, decrease the quality of the officer corps, and weaken the morale of the army. To empirically test this hypothesis, a comprehensive analysis is conducted using a range of multivariate Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and multilevel regression techniques. The dataset encompasses military engagements between national armies and violent non-state actors globally, spanning the years 1989 to 2021.