Adults in the Loop: The Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian War on Diplomatic Relations Between the EU and Indonesia

In recent years, the relationship between the European Union (EU) and Indonesia has been significantly and adversely shaped by disputes over trade commodities, which have unfolded against the backdrop of negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). However, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in February 2022 has heightened the EU’s need to diversify its strategic resources and partners. As part of its de-risking strategy, the EU has focused on strengthening diplomatic ties far beyond its traditional geopolitical sphere, including the Indo-Pacific region. This unique study applies selected text-as-data content analysis methods to statements made by the European Commission, the primary actor in negotiating trade agreements with third countries, directed at Indonesia. Utilizing related press releases, statements, and speeches from the first von der Leyen Commission (2019–2024) and the analytical software MAXQDA, this research examines whether and how significantly the Commission’s stance toward Indonesia evolved as a result of Russia’s aggression. The paper argues that following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Commission reassessed its existing disputes with Indonesia. Subsequently, the rhetoric of its senior representatives became less critical of the Southeast Asian nation, reflecting a growing awareness of the importance of diversifying strategic partnerships. Such a conclusion would undoubtedly testify to the diplomatic acumen of the EU’s senior officials. However, it would also represent a significant relativization of the EU’s efforts to assert its interests in trade agreement negotiations, potentially carrying adverse implications for the Union’s future external relations.