Attitudinal Scenarios of Polarized Winners and Losers: Electoral Outcomes and Citizens’ Trust in Democratic Institutions

This study examines the impact of affective polarization — and its two core components, in- party affinity and out-party animosity — on citizens’ political trust in democratic institutions following electoral competition. Drawing on post-electoral data from Spain’s 2023 and Chile’s 2021 general elections, Portugal’s 2022 and Argentina’s 2021 legislative elections, and Italy’s 2021 local elections, we explore how polarization shapes institutional trust among electoral winners and losers. Our analysis highlights the distinct effects of affective polarization: while out-party animosity significantly undermines trust in democratic institutions, in-party affinity leads to a polarized trust landscape. Furthermore, these patterns persist across different democratic contexts and electoral levels (general, legislative, and local), underscoring the robustness of this dynamic. By fostering distrust and exacerbating polarization, these effects create fertile ground for populist leaders to capitalize on democratic skepticism, threatening institutional stability.