Non-State Actors, Nationally-Determined Contributions, and the Compliance-Ambition Gap

What is the normatively appropriate role for non-state actors in promoting compliance and ambition with nationally-determined contributions (NDCs)? Taking the Global Stocktake of the UNFCCC as a starting point, we undertake three tasks in this paper. First, we build a dataset covering differential non-state actor efforts in relation to NDCs. The dataset covers non-state efforts across more than 30 countries and all continents. Second, we turn to an analysis of various non-state actor efforts with respect to compliance and ambition. We typologize these actions, and stipulate the scope conditions under which various activities succeed or fail in terms of both compliance and ambition. This requires a discussion of myriad tactics including best practice implementation, naming-and-shaming, insider lobbying, and climate litigation across multi-level contexts. Finally, we turn toward a normative analysis. Using a democratic systems approach, we claim that non-state actors should be considered legitimate actors in both compliance and ambition of state NDCs. The precise role of non-state actors, though, should be viewed as ‘function-sensitive’: understanding how different types of non-state actors should contribute will depend upon the compliance-ambition level of the state NDC being targeted, the capacity for state action, and the likelihood of success tracking broad democratic demands of the Global Stocktake process. We conclude with a discussion concerning whether the Global Stocktake – as a collective and facilitative endeavour – should be adjusted to take consideration of the roles of non-state actors in closing an ambition-compliance gap necessary to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius