Examining the Relationship Between Social Media Hate Speech and Hate Crimes: An Explorative Analysis

Contemporary hate crimes are highly embedded in the socio-cultural context, while also driven by factors such as hate speech, online political discussions. The literature exploring offline political violence has highlighted the complex interplay of factors driving hate crimes, underlining the role of social media, demographic variables such as ethnic composition and contextual factors, such as growth, GDP per capita, inequalities, criminality and unemployment rates. Research in this area examines how online hate speech, often produced by a small core group of users on social media, coincides with significant events that fuel offline hostility and violence. Hate speech is a specific type of verbal aggression characterized by language aimed at dehumanizing or inciting hostility towards individuals or groups based on attributes such as race, religion, ethnicity, gender, or sexual orientation. Hate speech goes beyond offensive language carrying the potential to provoke real-life violent behavior. Using data collected over the period 2015-2022 in Greece, our paper explores the linkage between hate speech on social media (Twitter/X) and reported in newspapers and digital media outlets hate crimes. Having measured the levels and fluctuations of hate speech targeting specific groups on social media and identified specific events or triggers coinciding with spikes in online hate speech, as well as the corresponding levels and fluctuations of hate crimes against the same groups during the period under examination, we use statistical analysis to model this linkage. Our analysis will also control for contextual factors, such as regions, severity of crime and demographic characteristics of violent actors. Additionally, subgroup analyses will be conducted to examine variations in hate crimes related to race, ethnicity, and religion, in order to investigate to what extent the identity of the victims is associated with the identity of scapegoats online. By exploring the interaction between online discourse and offline actions, our research provides valuable insights into how hate ideologies manifest, evolve, and interact with broader socio-political contexts, and contributes to our understanding of the role of social media and their dynamics in influencing hate crimes and patterns of violence.