How Certain Uncertainty? The Limits of Control Power and the (Re)definition of Uncertainty (the Case of the EU-Ukraine Relations)

The full-scale Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the EU’s response to it, particularly the significant multi-dimensional support to Ukraine and the renewal of EU enlargement policy, has reiterated the question of interplay between control and protean powers, decision making in the times of uncertainty, and the limits of predictability, agility, and conditionality. In our paper we focus on discussing EU-Ukraine relations since 2022 using the distinction between control and protean powers, their means and effects as well as their interplay in the times and conditions of uncertainty. In Ukraine, the consistent long-term support of reforms by the EU led to its perception as one of the main allies of democratic Ukraine, even though before 2022 the prospect of candidacy for Ukraine was far-fetched. The protean power exercised by EU in March 2022 by its support of Ukraine and has been often described as a gamechanger though in hindsight some experts noted that it should have been expected. Thus, the question remains whether it should be described in terms of protean power only or as an interplay of the control and protean powers. By definition, protean power responds to the unanticipated changes, defies path-dependent casual explanations, and encompass creative moves and intentional actions with unforeseen and unforeseeable consequences and effects. Thus, it is the type of power often found in uncertain conditions that allow and/or expect flexibility and agility. But is protean power and its effects unpredictable? Or could protean means have control outcomes? In our analysis we draw upon semi-structured expert interviews, op-eds and statements of Ukrainian and EU officials and policy experts regarding the EU-Ukraine cooperation, security, and enlargement policies and measures since 2022. Our data also allow us to discuss whether the distinctions between protean and control powers, means, and outcomes are context/perspective dependent or objectively defined.