Do Female Political Leaders Reduce Hate Crimes? Evidence from German Mayoral Elections

Hate crimes against minorities are increasing across democracies, but we know little about whether political leadership can help contain such violence. We argue that female leaders reduce hate-motivated violence by reshaping local norms and governance practices. Through more collaborative and inclusive leadership styles, female mayors may weaken extremist mobilization, promote anti-discrimination initiatives, and foster greater trust between citizens and institutions. We test this argument using an original dataset of mayoral elections from four German states, covering more than 8,000 mayoral elections across multiple years, linked to high-frequency police data on hate crimes. Employing a regression discontinuity design, we compare municipalities where female candidates barely won to those where they barely lost, isolating the causal impact of female leadership. We find that female mayors substantially reduce hate crimes, particularly non-violent offenses and crimes motivated by gender identity and sexual orientation. Our findings demonstrate that descriptive representation can reshape social norms and institutional responses to bias-motivated violence, with important implications for understanding how political leadership influences intergroup relations and democratic inclusion.