Selective Solidarity: Organizational Decoupling and the Uneven Activation of the EU’s Temporary Protection Directive

The EU's 2022 activation of the Temporary Protection Directive (TPD) for Ukrainian refugees marks a significant shift from its fragmented approach during the 2015-16 migration crisis. This paper explores why a supranational tool was available during both crises but was only used in 2022. Using a mixed-methods approach—including quantitative frame analysis of 1019 EU documents, process tracing, and fifty expert interviews—the study suggests that the EU's crisis response is best understood through the concept of organizational decoupling. While the 2022 response appeared to align rhetoric with action on the surface, this alignment was conditional and involved selective exclusion, exposing an ongoing underlying disconnect. This decoupling arises from institutional fragmentation, geopolitical biases, and ideological divides among member states. By applying a decoupling framework, this research not only explains a key policy divergence but also highlights the contingent and politically limited nature of solidarity in EU migration policy.