Assertiveness and War Fatigue: European Party Dynamics During Russia’s War in Ukraine

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 marked a watershed in European politics, compelling parties to adopt explicit positions. Prior to the invasion, many - especially those on the ideological fringes - relied on strategic ambiguity regarding relations with Russia. The 2022 attack prompted a surge in assertiveness toward Russia across the political spectrum - with only limited exceptions. This article examines whether these positions have endured or whether effects of war fatigue among European political parties have led to less assertiveness as the conflict has evolved. Drawing on an analysis of roll-call votes in the European Parliament on key resolutions related to Russia and Ukraine between 2019–2025, we develop the Assertiveness Toward Russia Index (ATRI). The results show that mainstream parties have largely maintained their critical stance, while the European far right remains divided. This has important implications for both the future of security policy and party competition in Europe.