Asymmetric Dependence: A Patron–Client Interpretation of Serbia’s EU Trajectory

The post-2022 geopolitical environment has altered the premises under which EU enlargement operates, yet analytical frameworks have not kept pace with these changes. The rapid elevation of Ukraine, Moldova, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and later Georgia to candidate status revealed a widening disjunction between geopolitical urgency and the EU's limited transformative capacity. At the same time, long-standing candidates such as Serbia remain embedded in an accession process marked by stagnation, selective compliance, and declining EU leverage. Existing approaches grounded in conditionality, Europeanisation, and normative power explain elements of domestic adaptation but struggle to account for the persistence of accession amid democratic backsliding, inconsistent alignment, and credibility deficits. These patterns are not anomalies but indicators that enlargement increasingly functions as a negotiated relationship structured by asymmetry, political discretion, and strategic bargaining. This paper examines EU–Serbia relations through the International Patron–Client Relations (PCR) framework and assesses the extent to which this perspective offers a more accurate interpretation of contemporary enlargement dynamics. PCR conceptualises asymmetric but mutually valued exchange, diffuse and evolving obligations, and long-term durability as the core mechanisms sustaining hierarchical relationships (Biermann 2025). These features correspond closely to empirical patterns in Serbia's accession trajectory. The EU provides material and symbolic goods, financial assistance, market access, and political recognition. At the same time, Serbia offers stabilisation, geopolitical positioning, and cooperative signals that extend the EU's influence in a contested environment. Although dependence on the EU remains structurally embedded, the Serbian government's selective alignment and reform stagnation indicate considerable room for manoeuvre, particularly as credibility gaps widen and rival external actors provide alternative patronal options. The diffuse nature of enlargement obligations, shaped by political discretion rather than enforceable benchmarks, further reinforces a negotiated rather than rule-bound dynamic. The analysis draws on documentary material from 2012 to 2025 and elite interviews conducted in Serbia. By tracing concrete episodes of exchange, delay, and signalling, the study evaluates whether PCR captures the relational logic of EU–Serbia interactions more effectively than prevailing paradigms. The findings demonstrate that PCR clarifies patterns that remain under-theorised in conditionality-based accounts and provides an analytical structure capable of integrating hierarchy, bargaining, and geopolitical incentives into enlargement research. In a context defined by strategic competition and declining EU credibility, PCR offers a necessary conceptual update, enabling a more realistic assessment of how enlargement operates and why it persists despite limited reform outcomes. (This study was conducted with the support of the SGEU FUTURE Research Grant)