Bilateral underpinnings of Europe’s position in international negotiations - How Franco-German dynamics infringe on EU policy coherence vis-à-vis the counterparts

Why does the European Union adopt a coherent position in some international negotiations but not in others? The article posits that political (dis)alignment between Germany and France plays a critical role in defining the EU’s bargaining stance. By process-tracing events in two ‘pathway’ case studies (Gerring, 2017: 105-114) – Brexit negotiations (2017-2020) and the EU-US trade dispute (2025) – the article illustrates that, while Franco-German alignment enhances the coherence of the EU’s stance, Franco-German disagreements contribute to undermine it. Therefore, the article suggests focusing on Franco-German dynamics when analysing the EU’s position in high-stakes bilateral negotiations.