The Globalization Backlash in Rural Areas: Price Shocks, Radical Right Support, and the Limits of Agricultural Subsidies

In recent years, the world has witnessed a rising backlash against globalization, but the policy responses to this shift remain poorly understood. This paper investigates how economic volatility influences political behavior in rural farming areas and whether redistributive policies can moderate its effect. We argue that sharp declines in the prices of locally produced agricultural goods increase support for radical right among rural residents, reflecting a shift toward protectionist preferences. We test this hypothesis in France (2008–2022) using a shift-share instrument that leverages global commodity price trends and local production patterns to identify the causal effect of agricultural price shocks on electoral outcomes. We then assess the moderating role of farmers' subsidies as part of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). We find that while CAP funding helps cushion economic insecurity, it does not fully offset the political consequences of price declines. An original survey of 1,542 farmers and follow-up interviews reveal that place-based grievances and perceived status loss are strongly correlated with concerns about price declines, highlighting the limits of redistribution alone. This study contributes to debates on the political fallout of globalization by showing that effective responses must address both economic and cultural dimensions of rural discontent.