The EU's path to Turnberry: societal influences, member state preferences, and the Commission's leeway

Why did the positions of the EU Commission and the French and German governments towards President Trump's trade policy change from an assertive-confrontational posture in February 2025 to the compromising-conciliatory stance behind the Turnberry accord in July? The paper aims at mapping the European policy-making process and at identifying the drivers for the change of policy positions. It argues that the change is best understood as the result of a dynamic interplay of societal forces affected by potential new US tariffs, responsive national governments, and the EU Commission. Thus, European trade policy positions will be explained by looking at three levels of analysis: first, societal forces (interest groups, voters) shaping national government positions, second, the EU Commission navigating between member state demands and its own agenda in conducting trade negotiations with the US, and third, the US positions/demands that influence the expectations of societal actors, national governments, and the Commission. While the domestic preference formation in Germany and France constitutes the first focus of the analysis, the second correlates the member state demands with the evolving EU Commission positions. The dynamic development of US trade demands and transatlantic negotiations are considered, thirdly, as an overarching force that influences the positions of societal interest groups, national governments, and the EU Commission at the same time.