Individual Trade Preferences during Tariff Wars: Evidence from the US

This study examines how individuals update trade policy preferences in response to new information about tariff consequences. We formalize a motivated Bayesian model where policy preferences change only when belief updating crosses a personal salience threshold. Using a five-stage survey experiment of about 3,200 U.S. adults, we test how information about inflationary versus reputational costs of tariffs affects beliefs and policy preferences. Results show that information provision about inflation risks generates substantially large belief updates, crossing individuals’ salience thresholds, and significantly reducing preferred tariff levels. Information on reputational costs, by contrast, produces small belief updates that fail to change policy preferences. Our findings explain why public opinion on trade often remains rigid despite new information. Preference updating occurs only when the information provided is sufficiently strong and personally relevant.