Trading safely? How security rationales shape EU external economic policy

Over the past decade, security considerations have increasingly influenced the debates and policymaking of both states and international organizations. Historically a bastion of openness and liberalization, mounting economic and political challenges have led the EU to embrace a more assertive outlook on the world. Although existing scholarship has examined specific measures, such as the Anti-Coercion Instrument or the Investment Screening Mechanism, we lack a comprehensive understanding of this shift beyond individual policies. To what extent, and under which conditions, do security rationales shape EU external economic policy? We argue that the closure of the EU’s economic boundaries is contingent on security considerations related to specific policy domains and partner countries. Boundaries are more likely to close when they are vulnerable to security risks and when partner countries are perceived as posing greater security threats, with the strongest effects when these factors coincide. Drawing on an original dataset covering EU boundary closure across 35 policy boundaries and 31 partner countries, fixed-effects regression models reveal a consistent and systematic integration of security rationales into EU external economic policy. By demonstrating how the EU differentiates between countries and policy areas in adapting its openness to a shifting geoeconomic environment, this study advances debates on the trade–security nexus within international organizations and offers a framework for analyzing similar dynamics beyond the EU.