Citizen constraints on Social Europe: who supports and opposes EU- welfare integration?

Increasing Euroscepticism, the rise of populism and democratic disenchantment pose major constraint to the revival of Social Europe. Despite renewed political achievements that institutionalize European social and welfare agendas, citizens’ consent is decisive for additional steps. In past attempts for deepening European integration, citizens’ opposition has frequently prevented projects like EU constitutional reform. With this in mind, it is relevant to evaluate how citizens view strengthening EU welfare schemes, and to determine which groups of citizens may be particularly strong advocates or opponents of welfare integration. Using original survey data from Germany and Poland collected ahead of the 2024 European Parliament election, I connect welfare integration support with further integration preferences. This allows providing evidence from two countries extremely relevant to EU politics, but with frequently opposing positions in public opinion on EU integration. My assumption is that support for welfare integration is not driven by general integration preferences, but rather by belonging to specific subgroups. This means that those with lower incomes, lower social recognition, and lower satisfaction with the status quo support European welfare integration because they hope that the European level can deliver social justice they have not experienced in their national contexts. This would mean that greater European welfare integration is not driven primarily by Euro-enthusiasts or by citizens advocating for greater economic or political integration.