The role of EU coercion and incentives in shaping Central Asian cooperation and adaptation strategies amid sanctions against Russia

This paper examines how the European Union’s combination of coercive measures and positive incentives influences the cooperation and adaptation strategies of Central Asian states in the context of sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. Theoretically, the research utilises the concept of ‘triadic relations’ (Early, 2009) of third countries in sanctions which represents a relational approach to studying the interdependence between a sanctioning state, a sanctions target and a third party. Central Asia has been high on the political agenda for its alleged role in systematic circumvention of sanctions against Russia. The European Union has unlocked a number of soft and hard mechanisms in preventing Central Asia from being the stage for the flow of sanctioned goods. Sanctions have not only reshaped regional economic dynamics but also reopened debates on Central Asia’s strategic identity and diversification of external partnerships (Karabayeva & Qoraboyev, 2024). Yet, Central Asian countries pursue their own economic interests, often related to the historic interlinkage with Russian in transport routes, energy security and labour migration flows. Therefore, the region appears as a heuristic example to analyse third countries cooperation strategies vis-a-vis sanctions through the lenses of relational approach. The paper analyses how European Union’s approach for enhanced sanctions enforcement is strengthening its sanctions governance but also balances with its interests in the region.