Center-Periphery cleavages and EU Support: Evidence from Scotland and Wales.

The centre-periphery cleavage constitutes a central dimension of political competition in regions marked by peripheral nationalism, and it plays a critical role in shaping attitudes toward the European Union. While existing research has examined how ethnoregionalist parties position themselves for or against EU integration, the influence of individuals' positions along the centre-periphery axis has received little systematic attention. This paper fills that gap by developing a theoretical model of attitudes toward European integration in such regions and constructing a new index that captures individuals' orientations within this conflict. We evaluate the model empirically using a multilevel logistic analysis of postelectoral survey data from Scotland and Wales. The context of the 2016 EU referendum provides a unique setting to assess how centre-periphery divisions structure support for the EU amid competing political considerations such as redistribution and immigration. The findings show that the centre-periphery cleavage meaningfully shapes public opinion on EU membership, with periphery oriented individuals markedly more likely to back continued integration.