Too Close to Ignore: How Geographical Proximity Shapes Support for European Security Cooperation

This study examines how geographic proximity to Russia shapes threat perceptions and security policy preferences among European Union (EU) citizens in the wake of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. It argues that physical distance from Moscow functions as a proxy for perceived contemporary vulnerability and historical memory. Citizens in EU member states closer to Russia are more likely to view the invasion as a direct threat, leading to stronger support for enhanced EU-level defense cooperation and for support for Ukraine. Using recent Eurobarometer survey data, we provide empirical evidence that geographic proximity systematically structures threat perception, public support for Ukraine and European defense cooperation. These findings suggest that while the war in Ukraine fostered broad rhetorical unity in Europe, underlying spatial variation in public threat assessments poses challenges for forging a European approach to security. Geography, we argue, continues to matter in shaping contemporary European geopolitics.