Between Support and Control: How Member States Navigate the European Commission’s Influence on EU Defence

While the idea of European strategic autonomy has been around for some time, its salience has increased rapidly since 2022 and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The concept itself, for Europe to become independent enough to act autonomously, has been further stressed as the European Union’s (EU) various dependencies on energy, critical raw materials, and security guarantees increasingly have been jeopardized. The European Commission has taken an active role in coordinating EU-level responses on different policy sectors, even those which historically have been strongly intergovernmental, such as defense. New policy initiatives targeting the defense industry and various strategies for how the European defense market can ramp up its production have been put forward for the EU to become more autonomous and resilient. Because defense still is a predominantly intergovernmental policy sector, the Commission faces the challenge of balancing both national governments’ preferences and industrial interests. This paper seeks to answer two main questions regarding the Commission’s increased involvement on EU defense policy. First, how do member states respond to the Commission’s expanded role on EU defense since 2022? Secondly, why do some member states support the Commission’s expanded role on EU defense, while others engage pragmatically for financial or industrial benefits, and others oppose the Commission’s influence? The analysis draws on national defense strategies, official statements and press releases, emphasizing how sovereignty concerns and defense industrial interests shape member states' preferences towards the Commission’s role on EU defense.