Post-exit dynamics in African regionalism

State exits from Regional Organizations (ROs) have been a constant feature of comparative regionalism worldwide. While research has already focused on factors that facilitate or constraining such exits, less attention has been devoted to the aftermath of withdrawal although specific (non)dynamics such as institutional phlegmatism, performative activism, reform or fragmentation are likely to occur. In this proposed contribution, we embark on an analysis of post-exit dynamics following withdrawals from African ROs. Specifically, we examine the research question which consequences emerge from these post-exit processes. As continent where regional integration efforts and institutions have mushroomed over the past decades – resulting in a ‘spaghetti bowl’ of regionalism – Africa is a particularly relevant key region for examining such processes. Our contribution is twofold: Theoretically, and against the background of a need to assess and conceptualize such processes in comparative perspective, we propose de-institutionalization as a useful lens to capture the emergence of more informalized settings of regional order. Empirically, we engage with two key subregions in Africa and conduct an historical analysis of post-exit dynamics across regions, policy fields, states, and ROs: The exits from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) by Mauretania in 2000 and by Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger in 2025, as well as the exits from the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), including Lesotho and Mozambique (1997), Tanzania (2000) and Namibia (2004). Identifying evidence of de-institutionalization, we argue that specific internal and external factors constitute drivers for this development and explain consequences of post-exit processes. Our analysis is informed by a systematic analysis of African press reports, official documents, and statements and engages in a structured, focused comparison across the (sub)cases of post-exit dynamics.