British National Security Perceptions and Policies in a Volatile Era: From Global Britain to an Ultra-European UK

This article examines how Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine reshaped the United Kingdom’s (UK) national security perceptions and strategic orientation toward European security. Moreover, it reflects on how Trump’s second presidency of the United States further transforms UK security perceptions and its outlook on Europe’s security architecture. The piece investigates the responses of British national security elites, tracing the evolution of threat perceptions, policy decisions, and institutional preferences. Drawing on Jervis’ theory of perception and misperception, and analysing elite statements, national security documents, and expert analyses, this study reveals a clear path dependency shaped by entrenched elite beliefs, highlighting the UK’s preference for an overlapping series of multilateral and minilateral security initiatives. It argues that, in the context of US retrenchment and growing concerns over Russian aggression, the 2025 strategy saw the UK reinforcing its defence posture and asserting itself as an ultra-European force, within overlapping collective security arrangements.