The EU Linkage and Leverage and Democratic Backsliding in Europe's Emerging Democracies

This article examines the impact of the EU linkage and leverage mechanisms over emerging democracies of Europe. In doing so, we take into account different forms of relationship between the European countries and the EU during times of countries’ application, candidacy, and membership to the EU in order to discern whether these different phases have an impact on the EU’s leverage. Based on our analysis of nascent democracies of Europe between 1990-2024, the impact of the EU diminishes from application to candidacy and from there to membership, while the EU significantly loses its leverage against democratic backsliding in the last stage-especially in the later years of the EU membership. In terms of linkage, we find that while the EU’s positive impact on the cases in terms of trade linkage is positive in earlier phases, cultural ties via international tourism also matter for prospects of democracy. Our findings give credence to the caution against EU’s safeguarding of democracy in member states based on individual case studies, while also inviting researchers to be further attuned to the different phases and forms of linkage and leverage that may affect the EU’s role in democratization and democratic backsliding.