For whom the bell tolls. A spatial analysis of the renewable energy transition determinants in Europe in light of the Russia-Ukraine war

The ongoing invasion of Russia of Ukraine and energy crises have sparked concern about economic and geopolitical stability all over the world. In Europe, the war has destabilized and endangered the energy cooperation and transition between European countries within and outside of the EU. This emergency has shown once more the importance of energy resilience policies to offset the vulnerability of energy systems and energy insecurity at the national and regional levels. Consilience has been reached on the necessity of enhancing EU energy security as an adaptation strategy. This work examines key characteristics of the renewable energy transition in the EU prior to the energy crisis and the war in Ukraine. To this end, we analyze selected economic, environmental, social, policy and political variables on energy sorting from the Eurobarometer studying European citizens’ perceptions. The exercise makes use of spatially-clustered regression to explore spatial heterogeneity and to elicit determinant information on specific regional clusters. We learn that southern Europeans attribute less importance to energy infrastructure to facilitate the renewable energy transition and repute EU solidity not a requirement for energy security access. Conversely, northern European citizens tend not to associate the responsibility of the EU in guiding competitiveness and policy toward green energy sources transformation. Robustness tests confirm our hypothesis. The EU energy and ecological transition thrive will pass through increased cohesion on both industrial and political matters and increased trust in institutions and energy policy which are likely to smooth the risks and disruptions coming from current and future shocks.