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The Legitimacy of Wartime Emigration: Evidence from Ukraine

Migration
Identity
War
Public Opinion
Survey Experiments
Refugee
Roman Hlatky
University of North Texas
Roman Hlatky
University of North Texas

Abstract

As a result of Russia's full-scale invasion, nearly seven million people fled Ukraine between 2022 and 2025. While research has focused on tolerance in refugee-receiving states, little is known about how citizens in origin countries evaluate wartime emigration -- an outcome of significant importance for post-conflict social cohesion. We contend that attitudes towards war-time emigration depend on two moral judgments: deservingness -- i.e., whether the reasons for leaving are perceived as legitimate; and obligation -- i.e., expectations about who has a duty to remain and contribute. To evaluate, we fielded a conjoint experiment with Ukrainian citizens (N=1635), asking respondent to assess not only the legitimacy of emigration, but also the government's right to stop individuals from leaving Ukraine. Citizens endorse departures when emigrant characteristics signal vulnerability, but oppose exit when profiles indicate voluntary dereliction of duty. Importantly, emigrant gender structures these perceptions: respondents express greater support for the emigration of women than for the emigration of men with otherwise identical profiles. Wartime emigration is not judged solely as a pragmatic or humanitarian issue, but also as a moral act embedded in gendered and duty-based expectations of citizenship.