Trajectory of Defiance: Evolving Communication Strategies of the Belarusian Opposition in Exile

Exile of political opponents is a common strategy of authoritarian regimes. Yet, instead of silencing opposition, contemporary exile often reshapes and diversifies opposition activities, prompting new forms of criticism and experimentation. Despite the global visibility of exiled oppositions from countries like Venezuela, Russia, and Iran, existing scholarship remains heavily regime-centred, treating exiled oppositions primarily as targets of transnational repression rather than political actors in their own right. We argue that exile presents opposition actors with political opportunities and threats, emanating from both the home country and host country contexts. Home and host country opportunities are argued to affect exile activities, which, in turn, should be reflected in exiled actors’ political communication. Drawing on an original dataset of opposition communication in exile, this paper examines the evolving communication strategies of the Belarusian opposition led by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, exiled after the fraudulent 2020 presidential election. The analysis is based on official political communication by Tsikhanouskaya’s office, covering more than 10,000 messages in Belarusian, Russian, and English over five years (average N ≈ 3400 texts/language. Using LLM-assisted classification, we construct a time-stamped dataset that codes each text by topic, category, and target of engagement. In addition to providing rich evidence on the case, hypothesis testing will rely on logit and linear regression models. This study advances our understanding of how exile can transform modes of oppositional communication, offering a framework to analyse how displaced movements attempt to maintain ties with both domestic and international audiences, and to react to changes in the political opportunity structures of home and host countries.