2014: Turkey at the Crossroads

Abstract

2014 is considered a fundamental year for Turkey. The March local elections will provide a litmus test for the Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) rule and also a taste of what will happen in the August presidential elections and the June 2015 legislative elections. After the launching of the December graft probe and the split with the Gülen movement, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s performance in these elections will determine his potential chances in the presidential race against the other possible candidate, current President Abdullah Gül. The local elections will also test the future prospects for the major opposition parties: the Republican People’s Party turn to social-democracy under Kemal Kiliçdaroglu; Devlet Bahçeli’s leadership of the Nationalist Action Party; the fate of the Kurdish movement, represented in both the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) and the People’s Democratic Party, a recently-created umbrella party for the BDP which intends to attract a wider leftist membership and aiming at making an impact in the wider regional area of Kurdish population. Both the elections and the development of the graft probe issue will dictate much of the terms of Turkey’s democratization process, which is closely connected to European Union accession. Despite a negative 2013 Progress Report, stressing major concerns (censorship, police violence, failure to protect fundamental rights and freedoms, a limited understanding of democracy as mere parliamentary majority) the EU has renewed its commitment to Turkey’s accession by opening a new chapter, the first after 2010. One should not also neglect the economic impact of the political situation. Political, social and economic developments in Turkey will also be crucial for the Middle East and affect the country’s role as a regional power. Once considered a model for democracy in the Middle East, there is no doubt that Turkey’s progress will be closely observed.

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