Western Space Policies: Dependence Risks on Russia

Russia's neighbour policy over the last decade has become threatening. Since 2008 it has been implemented more overt or covert military aggressions against neighbouring states Georgia and Ukraine by Russia. In Ukraine case the conflict "hot" phase are continuing. The subsequent deterioration of international relations between the West and Russia has raised the question of the feasibility of many projects where both parties are involved as partners. An important issue is an ability of the US and the EU to realize their space policy in independence from Russian supplies. The ability to reliably and in a timely manner to reach outer space, to provide an operations on Low Earth orbit, to support a smooth functioning of precise geopositioning stations in the global scale, is an important component to security in 21st century. The article examined aspects of NASA’s and ESA’s programs dependence on Russian supplies. Based on theory of economic and political process unity in global world, and actors’ interdependence (Keohane and Nye), the dependence factor effects on the financial and systemically most important Western space exploration programs are investigated. To assess the dependence factor the risk analysis method is used. In research is demonstrated the usefulness of application of modified risk matrix. In a result of the research it has contributed to assess the criticality and substitutability of programs that depend on Russian deliveries. To promote the implementation of its space policy independence from Russia the potentially optimal action of the West, the relevant to circumstances of the prolonged instability in the political relations between the West and Russia, is found.