Citizens’ Opinions on Complex Policy Issues – The Role of External Efficacy, Political Trust, Intertemporal Perspectives and Deliberation for Citizens’ Views of a Municipal Merger

In this paper, we firstly, seek to explain citizen’s opinions on a proposed municipal merger. Specifically, we study the impact of external political efficacy and political trust as predictors of being in favor of the merger. We regard municipal mergers as complex inter-sectoral policy decisions, with effects in both the short-term and long-term. Thus, we argue that external political efficacy and trust in politicians—i.e. feeling that politics is responsive to the peoples’ will and trusting politicians in their work—are key factors when citizens form their opinion about an issue they simple are not able to fully grasp themselves. This analysis is done with survey data (N = 6,700) gathered in 2018 in the Finnish municipality of Korsholm. In a second step, in order to understand citizens’ opinion formation better, we delve deeper into the intertemporal aspect of citizens’ views on municipal mergers. Using a different survey in 2019 in Korsholm, (N=224) we are able to study the linkage between intertemporal views and opinion about the merger. Do people that are against a proposed merger mainly concerned with adverse effects in the short-term or do they worry about long-term consequences? Finally, the paper also studies whether a deliberative Citizens’ Initiative Review (conducted over two weekends in 2019 in Korsholm) has any impact on either people’s view on the merger or the intertemporal aspects of it.